With polls so close, the winners of the presidential race and numerous other down ballot elections are hard to predict. But whether the results are immediately definitive or too close to call, UCLA experts are watching for a free and fair election.

Richard Hasen is an expert on election law, voting and campaign finance. He is a professor at UCLA School of Law, where he directs the Safeguarding Democracy Project, a cross-disciplinary and bipartisan group of scholars and activists working to ensure that elections in the U.S. remain free and fair. Hasen says:

“The 2024 election will be a test of whether we have adequately learned the lesson of 2020 that peaceful transitions of power are no longer assured in the United States. The U.S. has done much since 2020 to make election subversion harder to do, and we are no longer in a pandemic, so we are in better shape than in 2020. I will be watching to make sure that people can vote freely and fairly, that election workers will be able to tabulate the votes correctly without interference or intimidation, and that Congress will ultimately recognize the election winner as eligible to take office.”

Joseph Fishkin is a professor at the UCLA School of Law and an expert on constitutional law, election law, anti-discrimination law, and the interaction of law and the political economy. Fishkin says:

“One thing no pollster knows is who is actually going to show up on election day. That means this election might or might not be as close as the polls currently indicate. If it is that close, I hope journalists can help their readers/viewers understand that it is normal for it to take days to count ballots, especially in states like Pennsylvania whose laws say election officials have to wait until election day to even begin processing the millions of ballots they’ve already received. Conversely, if the election is not that close, I hope journalists understand that polling errors are normal because polls involve guesses about who will show up, and if those guesses are wrong, that’s not an indication of fraud. 

“Sadly, I expect a lot of noise and false statements about fraud and problems in the electoral system. If there are significant incidents of voter intimidation at the polls, the only way to be sure what is going on is going to be direct reporting by journalists; please do not rely on social media posts. Similarly, I hope we will not see any significant incidents of interference with vote counting or efforts to subvert the electoral college, but if we do see either of those things, there too, direct reporting on what is happening will be essential. Your role as journalists here is indispensable.”