According to a recent study on the 2024 presidential election, immigration is the second-top concern for Trump supporters — the economy is the first — but only the 10th most important to Harris supporters.
UCLA sociologist Roger Waldinger is an expert on international migration to the U.S. and the policies and politics emerging in response. He says that immigration is an issue that inherently works to the advantage of Republicans:
“Both Democrats and Republicans agree on the fundamental goals of immigration policy: that migration should be controlled, not open; and that states rightly exclude the many people who would benefit from migration and select those that the citizens and relevant interest groups prefer. The consensus on immigration among the two major parties is hidden, however, for two reasons.
“First, left and right differ over the details of immigration policy. While both Democrats and Republicans favor control, the Democrats would like policies that are relatively more open. This difference has grown over time as the Republican party has become more populist and especially since it has been taken over by Trump; the business interests that support expanded legal immigration for skilled workers or guest worker policies for agricultural policy have completely lost their capacity to influence Republican officials.
“Second, and more importantly, Democrats and Republicans differ over immigrant policy, namely policies that affect the immigrants who are already in our midst -- our neighbors, coworkers, employees, friends, and mates. That pro-immigrant orientation is at its strongest when it is oriented towards those people who are de facto, but not de jure, Americans, e.g., the ‘Dreamers.’ Advantage turns to the Democrats when issues related to immigrant policy are most salient. We saw this with the controversies over the family separation policies under the Trump administration.
“Immigration policy, not immigrant policy, is at the forefront of the electorate’s concern, which is why advantage has tilted towards the Republicans. The preoccupation with immigration policy stems from the fact that many of the causes of mass migration are driven by international events, whether involving wars, epidemics, or state failure. Those events are beyond the control of any President; when those events subsequently drive large numbers of persons to U.S. borders they bring questions of immigration policy to the fore, doing so in a way that allows Republican politicians, like Trump and Vance, to cast immigrants as a threat.
“In turn, Democrats backtrack and demonstrate that they, too, are intent on controlling borders; however, Trump and Vance can respond by telling voters that if they want control they should vote for the real article, not an imitation. They do so by greatly exaggerating the threat (e.g. Vance contending that there are 25 million undocumented immigrants when the actual number is closer to 11 million), inventing non-existent threats (e.g. Trump claiming that Haitian immigrants were eating pets), and by focusing on specific immigrant populations that segments of the U.S. population are likely to see as inherently less desirable (e.g., Muslims or Haitians or Somalis). Exaggerating the threat level has an immediate emotional impact, especially among low-information voters.”
Waldinger is director of the UCLA Center for the Study of International Migration and an expert on immigration policy, second generation immigrants, transnationalism and labor markets. The center will be hosting the webinar Immigration and the 2024 Presidential Election tomorrow, October 9, 2024, from noon to 1:30 p.m., with UCLA experts: legal scholar Hiroshi Motomura, political scientist Margaret Peters and public policy expert Gary Segura.
