California weather is yo-yo-ing around a bit this spring. Is it time for rain and snow or heat waves and wildfires in the Southwest? Join UCLA and UC Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain for a live Q&A today exploring California’s weather and wildfire outlook, heat and snowpack in the greater Southwest, and a brief update providing context to federal government action. Swain's office hours occur today: Tuesday, April 29, 1 p.m. PT/4 p.m. ET. (Link below).

Join live to ask questions in the chat, or use the same link later to review the recording. For a preview of some of these topics, visit Swain’s latest blog post:

  • A warmup, then cool down, then … snow?: “After a brief warmup this week, another colder and somewhat damp system appears likely to arrive in California this coming weekend. This system will … probably generate fewer coastal showers … The bigger story may be in the higher mountains, especially the Sierra, but also perhaps the highest mountains of SoCal, where a significant late spring snowfall could again occur.”
  • Shifting baseline syndrome: “There’s nothing inherently wrong with using a 30-year moving average window that shifts each decade; we’ve got to choose something. But it does leave us susceptible to what others have termed ‘Shifting Baseline Syndrome’ – essentially, the fact that conditions that would have been exceptional or even record-breaking just decades ago are increasingly perceived as ‘ordinary’ despite the fact that our built infrastructure and ecosystems have not been able to shift nearly as quickly as our perceptions.” [Editor’s note: Interested? Check out this recent UCLA study on overcoming shifting baseline syndrome.]
  • Dampness, drought and wildfire outlook: “This is shaping up to be a pattern that will further delay the onset of fire season in NorCal and continue to top up an already quite respectable water year in the part of the state that is home to most of California’s major reservoirs (which are all, following multiple decent-to-good winters, all ‘sitting pretty’ this spring despite the redevelopment of drought conditions in SoCal and the broader Colorado River basin in recent months). It is also tamping down fire risk in SoCal for the time being, though I don’t think that effect will last much longer than another week or two down south (but in NorCal, the legacy of past and recent dampness will likely persist well into June (or beyond, at high elevations) from a vegetation/fire perspective).”
  • Cool for now, but Southwest to heat up in June: “I’m certainly still not seeing indications of any severe heatwaves over the next 2–3 weeks across California, though the larger-scale pattern currently suggested for later in May-Aug. and beyond suggests a notably high potential for them later this season. … The closer we get to June, the more likely we will see a pretty large shift toward much warmer than average conditions across California and the broader Southwest.”

YouTube Office Hours with Daniel Swain

Tuesday, April 29
1 p.m. PT/4 p.m. ET